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Investing in Europe in times of uncertainty: risk or opportunity?

Europe is going through a moment of transformation. Geopolitical instability, the disruption of global production chains and mounting economic pressure demand a thorough reassessment of the European industrial model. In this context, the continent’s reindustrialisation has ceased to be a long-term ambition and has become a strategic priority. 

Yet, even with this certainty, doubts arise: could this transformation strengthen European competitiveness? And where do the opportunities lie for those who invest, or want to invest, in Europe with an eye to the future? These are some of the questions we seek to answer in this article. 

A new reality for Europe

The war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, trade tensions with the United States and the war in Iran, which began in February 2026, have made it clear that economic and industrial stability can no longer be taken for granted. 

Added to this situation is the uncertainty surrounding transatlantic security guarantees and the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Structural vulnerability

According to Goldman Sachs, between 2020 and 2024 around 64% of defence procurement by European NATO countries was carried out in the United States. In a context of more dispersed US priorities and constraints on its industrial base, strengthening European productive capacity has become a strategic priority, reflected in the initiatives launched by Brussels to increase the continent’s industrial and military readiness. This dependence is not limited to defence. It extends to critical raw materials, energy, semiconductors and strategic technologies. 

Defence as a European strategic priority

The European response is already under way, with investment in defence being treated as a strategic investment that has a direct impact on the European industrial base. 

 

The ReArm Europe/European Readiness 2030 plan aims to mobilise up to 800 billion euros to strengthen Europe’s military readiness and productive base. 

At the 2025 NATO Summit, in turn, allies committed to investing 5% of GDP in defence by 2035, signalling a long-term shift. 

European rearmament has also opened a new front of opportunity for the great industrial families. For the first time in decades, defence has ceased to be an excluded sector and has become a strategic priority in Europe, and private capital is following suit. For example: Germany’s Porsche-Piëch family has created a fund dedicated to defence startups; Sweden’s Wallenbergs have strengthened their position in Saab, a manufacturer of defence systems, radars and submarines; and the Dassault family, French owners of Dassault Aviation, have increased production, benefiting from demand for their products among various European allies. 

The reindustrialisation of Europe

If geopolitical instability has driven investment in defence, the reindustrialisation of Europe responds to a question that is not merely economic. Industrial capacity has also become a factor of sovereignty and resilience.

The Draghi Report on the future of European competitiveness made the diagnosis: Europe invests too little, over-regulates and has lost industrial dynamism relative to the United States and China. With the Commission’s presentation of the Competitiveness Compass, three clear priorities are identified: closing the innovation gap, decarbonising the economy and reducing strategic dependencies.

Competitiveness with decarbonisation at its heart

It is within this framework that the Clean Industrial Deal emerges, conceived as the operational arm of this new industrial strategy, so that decarbonisation becomes a competitive advantage rather than an additional source of lost competitiveness for European industry.

The focus is on modernising energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement and chemicals, ensuring they remain competitive in a context of accelerated decarbonisation. At the same time, the Clean Industrial Deal took a concrete step in March 2026 with the presentation of the Industrial Accelerator Act, which introduced ‘Made in Europe’ criteria and low-carbon requirements in public procurement across strategic sectors, with the aim of strengthening internal value chains and reducing external vulnerabilities.

The reindustrialisation of Europe therefore involves building a new industrial generation: cleaner and more digital. Added to this is the capacity to be resilient and to compete globally while strengthening its strategic autonomy.

Industrial holdings as engines of transformation

Europe’s industrial transformation requires capital on the same scale. According to McKinsey, recent estimates point to the need for around 1.2 trillion euros a year in public and private investment to strengthen European competitiveness. 

Public budgets are essential to frame the strategy but not sufficient to execute it, so the reindustrialisation of Europe will depend largely on the private sector’s ability to invest and scale up production in strategic sectors. 

There are signs that this movement is under way: according to the same source, private equity funds dedicated to Europe have raised around 300 billion euros, an unprecedented figure equivalent to about a third of global commitments. This capital is seeking opportunities in infrastructure, energy, industrial technology and the climate transition — precisely the areas at the heart of the new European industrial policy. In this context, industry-linked holdings play a decisive role: by allocating capital with a long-term vision, they strengthen value chains, drive technological modernisation and build the productive scale needed to compete globally. 

Investing in Europe: Semapa's strategic position

This landscape presents uncertainty but also opportunities, and it falls to players with industry experience to seek out the companies and sectors with the greatest growth potential, in an era when reindustrialisation cannot be postponed again. If Europe is going to need more industry, infrastructure, energy autonomy and internal productive capacity, industrial groups will have a decisive role to play. 

 

Semapa has been consolidating its position in these critical areas. Recent investments such as Imedexa, Gomà-Camps and Accrol through Navigator, ETSA’s acquisition of Barna, and Gropyus through Semapa Next reflect a consistent strategy for investing in Europe — one geared towards innovation, tangible sustainability, productive efficiency and integration into value chains of growing relevance.